Government by Consent is only possible when the People know what they're doing.
This page has rough calculations for when we can have Government by Consent.
Each person not actively teaching civics (one-to-many style) gets one other person to learn civics per year.
Government by Consent is apparently possible shortly after 3% of the population has started learning Civics. The actual number required may be more or less.
Numbers are based on people stating, in some fashion, typically verbally or in writing, that they will start learning Civics. Some people say they are going to do a thing, then proceed to not do the thing, and some do not say anything but learn on their own. The latter cannot be counted.
UPDATE Friday April 16, 2022
The number of people who started learning Civics in 2021 has changed from one to two.
This made me think about how to estimate growth. Not all who study a thing actively teach it, so growth is not necessarily exponential, as previously assumed. The assumptions update to:
Previously, I assumed exponential, pyramid style growth. This assumption is updated to the following:
The number of people engaged in one-to-many style teaching teach that number of people to learn civics per year
All people not engaged in one-to-many style teaching get one other person to learn civics per year, because someone gets curious from something they said, did, etc.
This adjustment, while it is not a positive change for the timeline, is more accurate and realistic.
I have also added a ceiling. This might not be obvious to some, but the Total people learning Civics in an area cannot exceed the population of that area.
UPDATE Friday April 8, 2022
On Friday, April 8, 2022, seven (7) more people said, via written Notice, that they would start learning Civics.
This brings the total for the 2022 year to 20, or 21 cumulative.
No change to the year when Government by Consent is possible. It is still 2025.
UPDATE Friday March 18, 2022
On Friday, March 18, 2022, three people stated verbally that they would start a civics course.
This brings the total of people who have started learning Civics for the 2022 year to 13, or 14 cumulative.
The estimated year reduces by one to 2025.
UPDATE March 10, 2022
On January 4, a group of people decided to start learning Civics as a group. Two months later, ten (10) people are still in regular attendance.
Based on these numbers, and assuming that each of the ten get another ten next year, and thus further extrapolated out, the year we can have government by consent is 2026.